Water OverlordTier 2
at 第2回キキ杯
decks
1
(9.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
3
0-3-0
overall winrate
0.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.3%
avg ELO -2.0 per match
expected value
40.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1149
· median 1149
· range 1149–1149
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1110
Q1 1182
Q3 1285
1545
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 18.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.3% | -2.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.8% | -3.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 9.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 9.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Overlord decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
